National Republican Senatorial Committee Courts Michels To Run Against Herb Kohl

When former Waukesha County Exec Dan Finley chose to lead the Milwaukee Public museum instead of running against gazillionaire Sen. Herb Kohl, an unnamed Republican operative was quoted in the Milwaukee newspaper as stating that there is "no second choice" for taking on Kohl.

Well, I've confirmed there is indeed another choice. In the last few weeks, members of the National Republican Senatorial Committee have launched a full-court press on businessman Tim Michels to run against Kohl in November '06, informed sources told me. I've learned national Republicans are courting Michels to run partly by pointing toward the large number of votes that he received against Sen. Russ Feingold in 2004. He's one of the few state candidates in Wisconsin to log more than 1 million votes. Specifically, Michels got more than 1.3 million votes in the Feingold race, which is a lot historically in Wisconsin for a statewide Republican. (Bush and Kerry each got just over 1.4 million; in 2000, both Bush and Gore each got under 1.3 million votes. In 2002, Gov. Doyle got just over 800,000 votes and Scott McCallum just under 800,000. In 2000, Kohl got 1.5 million votes against Republican John Gillespie's 940,000)

Whether Michels will run or not is undetermined, my sources said, but he's definitely getting the party pressure to do so. Some believe Michels can draw some lessons from John Thune of South Dakota, who ran and lost the year before (to Tim Johnson) he dislodged Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in an '04 upset. Of course, unlike Daschle, Kohl is not a lightning rod politician. Rather, he's just sort of.... there. Ironically, the Daschle race cost Michels money he was counting on in his bid against Feingold. More on that in a minute.

I would like to see Republicans put up a serious candidate, and Michels would be a really great choice, against Kohl. Philosophically, it bothers me that Republicans keep writing off Kohl's seat because "he's rich." With all due respect to Herb Kohl, who I am sure is a very nice man, what has the guy DONE as a senator? What leadership has he shown? Does he even have a vision for this state or country? If so, what the heck is it? Does he have an agenda? It annoys me that "because he's rich" and hasn't done anything (it's harder to make a case against an incumbent for not doing anything than it is to make a case against someone who takes a stand on things) Kohl is seen as unbeatable.

Is he beatable? He would be very tough to dislodge, no question about it, but I'd like to see someone like Michels take a hard shot at it.

I like the idea of another Michels candidacy. He's built up a lot of goodwill among the Republican base, something I've seen firsthand at events that he's shown up at on the campaign trail this summer and fall (and that I've attended with Paul). Russ Darrow has vanished from the political scene, but Michels is still aggressively out there, and a lot of positive feelings about him remain in the base. He wouldn't need to court the party's grass roots activists for support. He'd naturally bring that to the table because of the last campaign. He's personally wealthy himself. But he's remembered more for his military service (remember all those ads) and for running a major business, rather than for being "rich" like Kohl. He's got charisma. He's got statewide name recognition from his campaign against Feingold last time. He was vetted during that campaign; there were no real negative issues that the Dems came up with against him. His primary campaign was brilliantly run. Remember when lots of people thought Darrow would be the choice?

Would this be a suicide mission? No. But it would definitely be a tough battle, and right now it's not shaping up to be a good national climate for Republicans. I wouldn't hold my breath about Michels running, but I wouldn't rule it out, either.

I'm told that a Michels bid would depend in part on how serious national Republicans are this time around about putting some money into this race. One of the untold stories of the Michels-Feingold race was how the national party reneged on putting money into the race coming out of the primary, choosing to play in Washington State and South Dakota instead. Another untold story from that race was the amount of money that "Mr. Campaign Finance Reform" Russ Feingold spent - in the neighborhood of $11 million - whereas Michels spent around $4.4 million. The national Repubs eventually tried to get back into the game with a couple days left in the election as the polls tightened (at one point Michels was just three points down), but by that time a lot of advertising time had been bought up by other campaigns so the 600K the party anted up didn't get Michels very far. I suspect Michels would need to be convinced of the party's seriousness this time to agree to do this, but there is no question that the party is after him to run.

Wispolitics had a new poll on Kohl's approval ratings today, and they don't look terrible. Unlike Feingold, he's sort of a blank slate, who doesn't generate a lot of passionate feelings - either positive or negative. On Newsradio 620 WTMJ tonight, I asked listeners to give me the first word that popped in their minds about Kohl. I got "rich", "invisible", "Bucks", "useless", and "assets".

Exactly.