Wisconsin's Iraq Referendums: How the Media Are Misleading the Public

Are the Iraq war referendums a sign of "public sentiment turning against the war" in the Heartland as the MSM are trying to portray? Absolutely not. In fact, you can read the numbers an entirely different way. If you take out a couple big Lefty cities, more people overall voted to stay the course. I'll back that up with data in a minute.

Overall, there were 33 war referendums in Wisconsin on Tuesday (the AP lists the number as 34; I am using the numbers from Journal Sentinel and WTMJ, which reported 33 referendums in 32 communities). 25 referendums passed to cut and run. 8 communities voted to stay the course (kudos to them: Egg Harbor, Forestville, Sister Bay, Watertown, Hayward, Newport, Osceola, and Kewaunee). Evansville is counted twice, because it had two war referendums worded in different ways.

So, you might say: Wow, 25 of 33 referendums passed to withdraw the troops! it's a symbol of how the public is turning against the war! In fact, that's how the media packaged it (predictably).

Journal Sentinel:

Voters back bringing troops home

24 of 32 communities approve referendums

By MARIE ROHDE

Communities across Wisconsin Tuesday approved referendums calling for U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraq.

AP:

24 of 32 Wisconsin communities vote for Iraq pullout

By EMILY FREDRIX

MILWAUKEE (AP) -- It was a purely symbolic message but a heartfelt one. Thousands of voters turned out in Wisconsin communities large and small to tell President Bush to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq.

By margins overwhelming in some places and narrow in others, voters in 24 of 32 communities approved referendums Tuesday calling for the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

First of all, isn't the description "heartfelt" pretty much opinion inserted into the news? (The Wisconsin State Journal has a similar template).

The MSM template is incredibly misleading. Here's the other lead that the reporters COULD have written, and it would have been just as accurate:

More voters in 30 Wisconsin communities voted Tuesday to stay the course in Iraq than wanted the troops to withdraw. It was purely a symbolic message, but a heartfelt one. Thousands of voters turned out in communities large and small to tell President Bush to stay the course in Iraq.

But if you add in three large liberal strongholds that went for John Kerry in 2004, the numbers flip and more voters supported withdrawal overall.

That's right. You can make numbers read pretty much how you want; you can mold them to fit your own preexisting template. The referendum results are only symbolic of public sentiment against the war if you buy that Madison, La Crosse, and Shorewood are symbolic of the public overall in this state or region. They are not. They are Liberal communities that went for John Kerry in 2004 (we all know how Lefty Madison and Shorewood are, but, political science prof John McAdams reminds us, La Crosse also went for Kerry by a 61% to 39% margin of the two-party vote). These three communities drove the referendum numbers overall because of their populations.

Let's think of the race as one between two candidates: The cut and run (or withdrawal) candidate and the stay the course (or non withdrawal) candidate. If you take out Madison, La Crosse, and Shorewood, here's the overall vote total:

• 10,754 cut and run (49%)
• 11,131 stay the course (51%)

That's right: More people overall voted to stay the course and NOT withdraw the troops in 30 communities.

The point is, numbers can say what you want, depending on how you parse them. (Watertown also affects the stay the course number).

Overall, 21,885 people voted in those 30 communities. Consider this: Madison so skewed the numbers that more people voted to stay the course in Madison (11,252) than voted to cut and run in those 30 communities combined.

But even if you leave La Crosse in the tally and just take out Madison and Shorewood, you get a very different picture about "public sentiment on the war." Here's what you get:

• 14,368 Cut and run
• 14,114 Stay the course
• That's a difference of 254 votes in 31 communities. Hardly sweeping sentiment against the war.

Also, even if you count all of the 33 communities, overall, only 66,465 voted - about the size of the City of Waukesha. Overall, 40,376 people voted to cut and run, a miniscule number by any measure. There are 5.3 million people in Wisconsin (although not all are of voting age, of course).

• 5 communities (Watertown, La Crosse, Baraboo, Monona, Madison) together accounted for 79% of the votes cast overall and 80% of the votes cast to withdraw the troops.
• 7 communities (those five plus Shorewood and Whitefish Bay) together accounted for 86% of the votes cast overall and 88% of the votes to withdraw the troops.
• Of the other 26 communities, the split was 4,940 (withdraw) and 4,465 (stay the course), hardly an overwhelming divide, especially since the "peace groups" targeted communities where they were active and mobilized the vote.
• Madison accounted for 54% of the overall votes cast and 60% of the votes cast overall to withdraw the troops. (35,596 votes overall and 24,344 to cut and run)

In addition, I believe that the extremist "peace groups" that organized the referendum movement strategically targeted extremely low population rural townships in northern Wisconsin (and communities in Door County) because it would be easier to drive up the overall number of "passing" referendums (and drive the leads and headlines). This is especially true because they knew it would be a low turnout election. Consider these vote totals in support of withdrawal:

• Draper: 41-22
• Couderay 18-4
• Edgewater 38-35
• Ojibwa 25-16
• Frederic 92-82
• Exeland 18-16
• Winter 50-27
• Casco 55-50

You're getting the picture. It was probably not that difficult to get enough signatures to force the referendums in these communities (I'm hearing it might have taken as few as six signatures to force the referendum in one of the rural townships), and it could not have been that hard to mobilize turnout. Because there really wasn't much turnout. Hardly indicative of "public sentiment against the war," is it?

So what do the referendums mean? They are a testament to the PR skills of a couple mobilized, organized grass roots Lefty peace groups. They also speak to the MSM template on the war, because the PR efforts of said Lefty peace groups fit neatly into the media template. Period.